What Cardinals history tells us about this team’s erratic start

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What Cardinals history tells us about this team’s erratic start

Thu, 04/27/2023 - 14:27
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The Cardinals’ in-progress Pacific Coast marathon has presented ample time for some research, along with continued reasons — at least one more series lost — to see what the past suggests about stirring questions.

Such as ... Just how bad could this Cardinals start get by the time this season-long trip wraps up at, gulp, Dodger Stadium on the final day before May?

And, more importantly, at what point does a bad start begin to cement a bad season?

With apologies to Mike Claiborne’s longstanding Flag Day Rule — never value the standings until then (June 14), the longtime broadcaster insists in times both good and bad — your Cardinals entered Monday night’s series opener against the Giants in fourth place in the National League Central Division. They lugged behind them a 9-13 record that that included a glaring 0-7 mark in the first game of series. That series-opening trend is beginning to look a lot less like an oddity, and more like a telling trait for a slow-starting club.

(Update: Make that 9-14 after Monday night’s loss. And 0-8 in series openers.)

Between the Cardinals sending approximately every one of their players to the World Baseball Classic this spring; the arrival of the new and toughened MLB schedule that eliminates some of the trusty old soft spots; the front office’s lack of investment in a question-dotted starting rotation; a division that could be better sooner than some saw coming; and a gantlet of games against tough opponents out of the gate, it was relatively easy to see even before opening day a scenario in which the Cardinals could find themselves gasping for air early.

But even those who figured a stress test would produce mixed early results would be fibbing if they said they expected this.

The Cardinals are a better team than what they often have shown in games, I believe.

But teams that spend too much time talking about how they are better than what exists in the standings have one less reason to make that case every time their words and real-world results don’t align at a game’s end. Long is the list of teams that had more talent than they showed but didn’t get around to proving it in time.

For evidence, see the latest edition of the Blues.

But what about past examples of the Cardinals?

There is steady trend — it’s not very good, folks — with a few cheery outliers.

Since the National League started playing a 162-game schedule in 1962, 20 Cardinals teams have finished April with a losing record. Eight of the 20 corrected course in time to produce a winning regular season. But just three recovered well enough to punch postseason tickets.

First up are the 1985 Cardinals, a 101game winner that reached the World Series, and probably would have won it had it not been for umpire Don Denkinger’s blown call in Game 6 against the Royals. Managed by Whitey Herzog, those Cardinals were 8-11 on May 1, after starting the season with four consecutive losses and dropping four out of five to round out an ugly opening month. It became their last losing month. They finished first in their division, and first on the list of all-time World Series what-ifs.

The second example is the 1996 Cardinals, who went from not having a winning month until June under first-year manager Tony La Russa, to a first-place finish and a division-series sweep of the Padres before a Game 7 NLCS loss to the Braves.

The third and most recent was the 2002 Cardinals, who shook off a 12-14 April to not have another losing month in the rest of their 97-win, first-place season. That La Russa team swept the Diamondbacks in a division series before falling to the Giants in the NLCS.

In between and around these three resilient examples are Cardinals teams that lost their way early and never really found it.

La Russa’s 2007 Cardinals were the most recent to have it happen, and the time that has passed since then without another example probably is another reason why this season’s rocky start feels so strange and so scary.

Fresh off the 2006 World Series championship, those Cardinals returned many, including Albert Pujols, but they had some real starting-pitching question marks. Sound familiar?

A 10-14 start through April remained a losing record through May and then June. Way too many home losses from that bunch. Sound familiar?

The bottom dropped out again on the third-place Cardinals after an attempted summer spark. It’s a notable season, because until some team stumbles hard enough to take its place, it was the Cardinals’ last losing one.

It’s easier now than ever before to make baseball’s postseason. More teams allowed in means more time to figure out what is wrong and fix it. But if this Cardinals erratic start continues through this road swing against the Giants and Dodgers, a look back suggests there will be a hard road ahead.

Coming home at or above .500 would represent a pretty big win.