Breaking down the Celtics two potential first round playoff series

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Breaking down the Celtics two potential first round playoff series

Tue, 04/11/2023 - 13:52
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Apr. 10—Playoff basketball is upon us.

Well, almost. As the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics have to wait for the play-in tournament to conclude before finding out their opening round opponent.

Led by an MVP-caliber campaign from Jayson Tatum, the C’s wracked up 57 wins against 25 losses. Their first round opponent will be closer to the .500 mark, and on paper it would appear Boston would roll through the initial series with relative ease. The Celtics will welcome the winner of Tuesday’s play-in matchup between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. Both teams could pose genuine challenges, and it may not be the cakewalk fans would expect.

Here’s a breakdown of each potential opponent and what to expect moving forward.

Miami Heat (44-38)Season series: Tied, 2-2 Top players: Jimmy Butler (22.9 ppg., 5.9 rpg., 5.3 apg); Bam Adebayo (20.6 ppg., 8.3 rpg., 3.2 apg); Tyler Herro (20.3 ppg., 4.2 apg., 38 percent from deep).

By the numbers: Miami is 27-14 at home, 17-24 on the road. It went 24-28 against Eastern Conference opponents and 20-10 vs. the West. The Heat hold a points for/ points against average of 109.5/109.8.

Analysis: Pat Riley’s team has flown under the radar this season, hovering around .500 for much of the year. But if Miami holds serve on their home court Tuesday, it won’t be your typical 7-seed.

No, the Heat don’t have the depth and offensive versatility Boston does. What they do have is one of the game’s most clutch and relentless stars in Jimmy Butler, a multi-talented, two-way big in Bam Adebayo, an instant offense sharpshooter in Tyler Hero, plenty of playoff experience with Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love and Butler, and one of the league’s most well respected, pure basketball minds in head coach Eric Spoelstra. They boast a top 10 defense but are 25th out of 30 teams in offensive rating.

Boston will unquestionably be the favorite in this potential matchup, but the Heat are certainly not the team it wants to face in Round 1.

In 97 playoff games throughout his career, Butler is averaging 20 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists. He’s had plenty of career-defining postseason moments, including the 2020 NBA Championship in the bubble against the Lakers where he nearly single-handedly willed his team to victory.

I firmly believe a clash with the Heat will be nothing short of a grind. Expect Miami to give Boston everything it has, which truthfully could benefit the Celtics in the long run.

Prediction: Celtics in 6 Atlanta Hawks (41-41)Season series: Boston won, 3-0 Top players: Trae Young (26.2 ppg., 10.2 apg); Dejounte Murray (20.5 ppg., 5.3 rpg., 6.1 apg.); Clint Capela (12.0 ppg., 10.7 rpg.).

By the numbers: Atlanta is 24-17 at home and 17-24 on the road. It went an even 26-26 against Eastern Conference opponents and 15-15 vs. the West. The Hawks hold a points for/points against average of 118.4/118.1.

Analysis: When the Hawks mortgaged three first-round draft picks, a draft swap and current Celtic Danilo Gallinari for rising star Dejounte Murray last summer, many believed it would jolt Atlanta into the upper echelon of East contenders. Instead, the pairing of Murray and fellow all-star guard Trae Young has been far from perfect, and bouts of frustration and turmoil have surrounded the team’s locker room.

The Hawks’ underachievement prompted management to fire coach Nate McMillan, replacing him with former Utah Jazz head coach Quin Snyder. Is Atlanta better off with Snyder at the helm? Probably. But the Hawks haven’t done anything all year to suggest that they’re capable of a playoff run, let alone an upset of the powerhouse Celtics.

Boston will need to keep Young, the NBA’s total assists leader and a streaky yet very capable outside shooter, in check. But the Celtics’ length on the wings, superstar talent, overall experience and most importantly, team chemistry should be more than enough to get the job done.