Why Celtics playoff path from No. 2 seed could be more favorable than expected

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Why Celtics playoff path from No. 2 seed could be more favorable than expected

Wed, 03/29/2023 - 18:08
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The Celtics have made it clear they have their eyes on the No. 1 seed in the East during the home stretch of the regular season. Part of the motivation for taking that path would likely be avoiding Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers in a potential second-round matchup so the Bucks have to deal with that headache.

With just seven games remaining in the regular season, catching the Bucks will be a tall task for Boston. Milwaukee still has a twogame lead even if the Celtics pull off a head-to-head win against the Bucks on Thursday, they would still need help elsewhere to catch the title frontrunners.

Boston will be putting their full energy into that race in the coming days but if the Green end up with the No. 2 seed, their path to the East Finals may not be as daunting as anticipated. Why? The 76ers suddenly seem vulnerable in falling all the way down to the No. 4 seed.

Related: Mobile sports betting is live in Massachusetts on DraftKings. Get started with $200 in bonus bets After the 76ers fell to the Nuggets without James Harden and Joel Embiid on Monday night, Philadelphia has now lost three straight games overall. That slide has not only tightened the Celtics’ hold on the No. 2 seed (three games up on the 76ers with the tiebreaker) but it has also brought the Cavs back into the race for the No. 3 seed.

Unlike the 76ers, Cleveland has become healthier in recent weeks and that’s led to a four-game winning streak that has locked up the No. 4 seed for them. They currently trail the 76ers by just 1.5 games with a mere six games to play but that is a deficit that could be closed when you compare the closing schedules for both squads.

Cavs closing schedule: @ ATL, vs. NYK, vs. IND, @ ORL, @ ORL, vs. CHA (no back-tobacks) Analysis: This is one of the softer closing schedules in the East especially with the Pacers deciding to rest most of their starters in recent days. Atlanta and the Knicks are still fighting for playoff positioning but every other team here is not playing for anything in the standings at this point. The Magic and Hornets are playing better of late but those are games that a top playoff team like the Cavs should handle if they are motivated to. A 6-0 or 5-1 finish feels very realistic during this stretch.

76ers closing schedule: vs. DAL, vs. TOR, @ MIL, vs. BOS, vs. MIA, @ ATL, @ BKN Analysis: This is the second toughest schedule remaining in the NBA based on winning percentage as all seven teams are expected to make the postseason. The playoff bubble squads (Dallas, Toronto, Atlanta, Brooklyn) will be fighting for their lives in these matchups and it’s possible that the Nets will be trying to play their way out of a play-in tournament in the final game of the regular season, potentially adding significance to that matchup. The Celtics and Bucks will both be in the mix for the No. 1 seeds when those games are played with Philly as well so there are no gimme wins here for the Sixers. A 4-3 finish or worse is very much in play here, especially if the team opts to be cautious with their star talent that is still dealing with injuries (Embiid, Harden).

Celtics vs. Cavs in Round 2? The 76ers hold the tiebreaker edge over the Cavaliers based on a 2-1 edge in the season series so the Cavs will need to move outright ahead of Philadelphia in the standings to take the No. 3 spot. That path feels incredibly doable though if the Cavs take care of business in their own games. A 5-1 finish by Cleveland plus a 4-3 Sixers finish would give Cleveland the No. 3 seed and that would lead to a potential secondround dodge of the 76ers for Boston assuming they remain in the No. 2 spot.

If the Cavs loom as a potential second-round opponent, that would be far from a walkover for Boston since they’ve gone 3-1 in head-to-head matchups this year against the Celtics and have the second- best point differential in the NBA. Still, the Celtics were shorthanded for a lot of those matchups and are better equipped (on paper) to handle the Cavs stars rather than roll the dice against Embiid.

Either way, the Celtics won’t be sweating these results since their playoff goals go far beyond the second round. Amid the grind of the postseason, every single round matters and a more favorable path could go a long way for Boston in helping them get past the Bucks in the East Finals to still have something left in the tank for the NBA Finals. That makes this situation worth watching closely as the regular season draws to a close in an unsettled East playoff picture.