In days of yore, a Republican like Rep. Mike Lawler would be an easy sell in the New York suburbs. None other than Joe Biden recently praised him as “not one of these MAGA Republicans.”

Lawler was one of the 18 Republicans who recently won districts that Biden carried in 2020. But with Donald Trump probably on the next ballot, these Republicans can’t be looking forward to 2024.

They already negotiate a narrow path on abortion that would put off neither Republican primary voters nor their overwhelmingly pro-choice electorate. Here’s how Lawler did it in 2022: “Let me be clear: I am personally pro-life, while also supporting the right to an abortion in cases of rape, incest or if the mother’s life is in jeopardy. For the record, I’m also opposed to a federal ban on abortion and would vote against one.”

Has he made himself clear?

The point is that his constituents don’t care a fig about his personal beliefs on abortion but whether he would help make it harder for their daughters to get one. Right after the U.S. Supreme Court left the matter up the states, this was not much of a worry in prochoice New York. Now that the Republican right is trying to constrict reproductive rights everywhere, it is.

Another issue burning hot in the guts of these swing voters is the limit that Republicans placed on the amount of state and local taxes they could deduct on their federal returns. Red-state Republicans inserted the $10,000 cap into Trump’s 2017 tax law as a means to siphon money out of the high-tax blue states.

Higher salaries in expensive places like California, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York push a lot of middle-class folks into higher tax brackets but not plusher lifestyles. A cop married to a nurse could easily have over $160,000 in joint income. Their state and local tax burdens are high, as well. The average property tax on Long Island is now about $11,232 a year.

Some left-wingers, such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York or Pete Aguilar of California, clearly do not understand that the attack on the state-andlocal- tax-deduction (SALT) was intended to cannibalize the very tax bases that funded their own priorities. Making matters worse, the loss of the full SALT deduction became the last straw for many of their well-to-do taxpayers, prompting some to head for decidedly nonprogressive states like Florida and Texas.

New York Mayor Eric Adams, a Democratic voice on the smarter side of the ledger, never tires of reminding the left that the richest 2% of the city’s tax filers account for over half of the city’s income tax collections. And that doesn’t include the mountainous taxes they pay on their fancy real estate.

Lawler belongs to the new “SALT” caucus, a bipartisan group trying to scrap the $10,000 limit. But the difference between a Republican member like him and Democrats like Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey and Anna Eshoo of California is that that Lawler helps keep in power the very party that targeted his constituents for what is, in effect, a tax on their taxes.

In 2022, Republicans flipped four Democratic seats in New York State, one by the notorious George Santos. But come next year, crime will be far less of an obsession, abortion will be more of one and the SALT cap will continue to anger, as will the MAGA-spawned economic chaos.

One misses the days when voting for a sane Republican moderate could be done without reservations. But until the party leadership turns sane, many blue state voters will see any Republican headed for Washington bringing trouble their way.

Follow Froma Harrop on Twitter @FromaHarrop. She can be reached at fharrop@gmail.com. To find out more about Froma Harrop and read features by other Creators writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators webpage at www. creators.com.