5 things to follow in Mavericks’ playoff push: Can Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving play defense?

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5 things to follow in Mavericks’ playoff push: Can Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving play defense?

Thu, 02/23/2023 - 05:22
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The Mavericks officially ended the NBA’s All-Star break Wednesday afternoon, holding a full-team practice at their Design District facility to prepare for Thursday night’s matchup against the San Antonio Spurs and the push toward the playoffs.

The rest of us need to get ready, too.

Dallas’ remaining 22 regular- season games will include a six-game homestand, 11 national TV showcases and several matchups against key Western Conference playoff contenders in the close seeding race.

Here are five players, trends and statistics to follow as the sixth-place Mavericks (31-29) begin the stretch run.

Mavericks’ strength of schedule

Let’s start with the positive news — or at least what should be good.

The Mavericks’ will enjoy the NBA’s easiest schedule after the All-Star break. Their remaining 22 opponents have combined for a .466 winning percentage so far this season. That includes three games against tank-ready San Antonio, which lost 14 straight entering the All-Star break, and two apiece against lowly Charlotte and rebuilding Indiana.

Even more beneficial for Dallas: The closest three teams ahead of them in the West standings — the No. 3 Sacramento Kings, No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers and No. 5 Phoenix Suns — will face the fourth-, second- and sixthhardest remaining schedules, respectively.

While a perk in theory, the Mavericks might be cautious about the relative ease of their upcoming slate because this season they’ve suffered seven losses to teams missing their best player and eight in games they once led by double digits.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, for real

Surprised it took this long to get to the Mavericks’ fascinating All-Star backcourt?

Wait no longer.

The next few weeks will be crucial to watching and analyzing Doncic and Irving’s potential entering the playoffs — and potentially beyond with Irving a pending free agent.

Because Doncic suffered a heel contusion just before the Mavericks pulled off the trade and Irving missed the final game pre-All-Star break with back tightness, they’ve played just two games together, and the Mavericks lost both.

Their record drops to 0-3 if Team LeBron’s All-Star defeat counts against Doncic and Irving, too.

Though their two-man lineup combination has logged a plus-7.2 points per 100 possessions net rating in 58 minutes together, the sample size is miniscule and variance with two-player lineups is significant. Little has become clear about how Doncic will adjust to playing without the ball in his hands as often as he’d become accustomed or how Irving will mesh with a new squad after controversy and disgruntlement in Brooklyn expedited his the first midseason trade of his career.

But health-willing, the Mavericks and fans should soon get a clearer look at whether their tandem will be as unstoppable and cohesive offensively as Dallas’ leadership hopes.

Defense, defense, defense But will the Doncic-Irving scoring prowess matter if the Mavericks can’t stop their opponents on the other end?

Through 60 games, Dallas’ defense ranks 24th in the NBA, allowing 115.2 points per 100 possessions. All six teams worse than that are currently out of playoff or play-in tournament position, and at least four are more focused on securing the best draft lottery odds to land French phenom Victor Wembanyama.

Since sending lead defender Dorian Finney-Smith to Brooklyn in the Irving trade, the Mavericks’ defensive rating has increased to 118.3 points per 100 possessions, 23rd in the league over the six-game stretch.

So often focused on defensive execution and energy last season and through the first half this year, coach Jason Kidd has joked about the Mavericks’ new defensive plan of just out-scoring opponents.

But after a 124-121 loss Feb. 13 to Minnesota, Doncic cautioned: “You’re not going to win championship only by offense.”

Welcome back, Maxi Kleber Here comes the player the Mavericks will most rely on for a defensive boost.

Kleber hasn’t played since suffering a right hamstring tear Dec. 13 and undergoing surgery a week later, but he has highlighted the first game after the All-Star break as his ideal return date.

The Mavericks’ frontcourt is ready and waiting.

Just over two months removed from surgery, Kleber, no doubt, will face a minutes restriction as he reacclimates to full-speed play. The Mavericks’ staff already managed his rotations to best maintain his health, so expect his second-unit role and 25-minutes-a-game pace to remain similar after he ramps back up.

Before Kleber suffered the injury, the Mavericks’ logged a 112.6 defensive rating over 27 games, almost five points per 100 possessions lower than their 117.4 rating in the last 33 games without him.

Kleber can’t cover five positions at a time or mask the loss of Dorian Finney-Smith alone, but Dallas has high expectations for defensive improvement and frontcourt stability when the 31-year-old forward returns.

Christian Wood’s evolving role

Kleber’s return could also help Wood re-establish his role in the rotation.

Wood started the season as the Mavericks’ sixth-man center, in part because Kidd wanted to match his substitution patterns with Kleber’s to highlight Wood’s offensive dominance while masking defensive lapses.

Wood then made the first of his 16 consecutive starts Dec. 17, three days after Kleber’s injury, but hasn’t returned to the starting five since fracturing his left thumb Jan. 18. In six games since the Irving trade, Wood has played as the Mavericks’ third center, coming off the bench after starter Dwight Powell and previously little-used reserve JaVale McGee.

Few question Wood’s offensive force (averaging 17.8 points in 27.7 minutes a game while shooting 52.8% from the floor and 37.8% from three), but his consistency on defense will be a major factor in how Kidd and the Mavericks’ staff utilize him in the build up to what should be his first NBA postseason — and looming free agency after that.