Jun. 20—The 2021 NBA Draft has long been dubbed a “five-player draft,” but that won’t ring true several years from now.

One or more of Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Evan Mobley, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga will fall short of expectations. And multiple players outside of the consensus top five will shine through and make executives second-guess themselves a decade later.

Just look at the recently released All-NBA first team. Only one of the five — Luka Doncic at No. 3 — was a top-five draft pick.

Stephen Curry went No. 7. Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo went 15th. Nikola Jokic, the runaway MVP, was the 41st pick in 2014.

Still, of the 15 All-NBA selections, 10 were top-10 picks. Of those, six (Doncic, Joel Embiid, Chris Paul, LeBron James, Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving) were topfive picks.

“Clearly the high-end talent, the players that we see on the commercials, they’re generally drafted toward the top,” said Thunder general manager Sam Presti. “But there’s good players throughout, and I think the NBA is full of really good players that weren’t necessarily drafted at the top of the draft.”

The Thunder could have zero, one or two top-five picks — a question that will be answered at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday in the NBA Draft Lottery. That variance is huge.

In the lottery era, which dates back to the 1985 draft, the top 10 players in win shares had an average draft position of 5.9, according to Basketball Reference. Win shares estimate the number of wins contributed by a player.

Four of those players were No. 1 picks — James, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal and David Robinson.

In the past 10 drafts, dating back to 2011, the 10 No. 1 picks have combined for nine All-NBA appearances. Four for Anthony Davis, three for Irving, one for Karl-Anthony Towns and one for Ben Simmons.

No. 2 picks over that same period have combined for just one All-NBA nod — Victor Oladipo in 2017-18.

No. 3 picks have combined for seven All-NBA teams — led by Embiid with three.

No. 4 picks? No All-NBA appearances among them in the last 10 years. No. 5 picks? Zero as well, though former Sooner Trae Young has a good shot at becoming the first.

So while any general manager would gladly take their chances with a topfive pick, hitting on that pick isn’t the certainty it might seem.

But while the Thunder has missed on plenty of picks, Presti’s record in the top-five is pristine.

Kevin Durant second overall in 2007, and Jeff Green fifth as part of a draftnight trade. Russell Westbrook fourth overall in 2008. James Harden third overall in 2009.

Three MVPs in Durant, Westbrook and Harden. And Green, while not a star, is still playing quality ball at 34.

Maybe Cunningham could be next. Or Mobley or Kuminga. Jalen Suggs or Jalen Green.

“Just like the lottery rarely goes one, two, three, four, five in order,” Presti said, “the draft is littered with good players, and they very rarely go one, two, three, four, five in order.”

When: 7:30 p.m. Tuesday

TV: ESPN (Cox 29)

OKC odds: 45.1% for a top-four pick and 11.5% for the No. 1 pick. The Thunder also owns the Houston Rockets’ first-round pick if it falls outside the top four.