Sam Farmer’s Week 9 NFL picks

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Sam Farmer’s Week 9 NFL picks

Sat, 11/06/2021 - 13:38
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Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season begins Thursday with the New York Jets visiting the Colts in Indianapolis. The Los Angeles Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups.

— Farmer’s record last week: 7-8 (.467); season 77-45 (.631). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 7-8 (.467); season 58-62-2 (.483).

— Teams on bye: Lions, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Washington Football Team

Times Pacific. Lines according to FanDuel (O/U = over/under):

Jets (2-5) at Colts (3-5)

Thursday, 5:20

Line: Colts by 10 1/2. O/U: 46.

Teams are similar in a lot of ways, and both can crank up the pass rush. Makes more sense that Carson Wentz would be prepared at home on a short week than Mike White pulling off another stunner.

Prediction: Colts 27, Jets 21

Patriots (4-4) at Panthers (4-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Patriots by 3 1/2. O/U: 41.

Patriots run the ball well, Mac Jones doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, and they’re solid on defense. The Panthers can clamp down on defense and might be getting Christian McCaffrey back. Prediction: Patriots 23, Pan

Prediction: Patriots 23, Panthers 18

Browns (4-4) at Bengals (5-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 2 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Both are coming off losses, but at least the Bengals were able to generate 31 points in falling to the New York Jets. Cincinnati is at home and facing a team still trying to get its offense on track.

Prediction: Bengals 23, Browns 17

Bills (5-2) at Jaguars (1-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 14 1/2. O/U: 49.

This is a style-points game for Buffalo, in which the Bills are not only expected to win but also to win going away. Josh Allen should have a big day, and this will be decided fairly quickly.

Prediction: Bills 34, Jaguars 10

Raiders (5-2) at Giants (2-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Raiders by 3. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Raiders are a mess off the field, but they’ve done a good job of sticking together and winning games. They’re fresh after a week off and just better than the banged-up Giants.

Prediction: Raiders 30, Giants 20 Vikings (3-4) at Ravens (5-2)

Vikings (3-4) at Ravens (5-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 6. O/U: 49 1/2.

Ravens got a week off after a thrashing by Cincinnati, and that should help. Minnesota got scorched by Dallas — with Cooper Rush at quarterback — and couldn’t achieve liftoff with Kirk Cousins.

Prediction: Ravens 28, Vikings 24

Broncos (4-4) at Cowboys (6-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Cowboys by 9 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

With Dak Prescott back and no Von Miller to worry about, Dallas should be able to crank up the offense. But Denver put on a respectable performance against Washington without Miller, so ...

Prediction: Cowboys 28, Broncos 21

Texans (1-7) at Dolphins (1-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Dolphins by 6 1/2. O/U: 46.

Two bad teams. Last Sunday’s home loss to the Rams should have been more lopsided for the Texans, but Houston came back with some cosmetic scores. Miami is a little better but not much.

Prediction: Dolphins 20, Texans 14

Falcons (3-4) at Saints (5-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 6. O/U: 42.

If Saints had a solid answer at QB this would be an easier pick. Their defense is playing well, though, and made Tom Brady look mortal last week. They should be able to do the same against Matt Ryan.

Prediction: Saints 21, Falcons 17

Chargers (4-3) at Eagles (3-5)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 1 1/2. O/U: 50.

The Chargers are too well coached, and Justin Herbert is too good not to bounce back from the New England loss. Philadelphia is coming off a lopsided win, but it came against the feeble Detroit Lions.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Eagles 17

Packers (7-1) at Chiefs (4-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. Line: Chiefs by 7 1/2. O/U: 48.

Line: Chiefs by 7 1/2. O/U: 48.

The Chiefs are wobbly and suddenly prone to turnovers, but the turnover that matters most here is the quarterback change by Green Bay. Jordan Love will be hard-pressed to win at Arrowhead.

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Packers 23

Cardinals (7-1) at 49ers (3-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Cardinals by 1 1/2. O/U: 46.

Should be a hard-fought NFC West game. The 49ers are perpetually limping, but even at partial strength they will be tough. The Cardinals are rested after an emotional loss to Green Bay.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, 49ers 23

Titans (6-2) at Rams (7-1)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Rams by 7 1/2. O/U: 53 1/2.

Rams were torn up on the ground against Arizona, so they catch a big break in not facing Derrick Henry. Tennessee still has some weapons, but not enough of them. Another big Matthew Stafford game.

Prediction: Rams 31, Titans 24

Bears (3-5) at Steelers (4-3)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Steelers by 6 1/2. O/U: 40.

Both are struggling, but Pittsburgh is at home in prime time, and its defense will have something dialed up to fluster Justin Fields. Chicago’s line is going to have a hard time protecting him.

Prediction: Steelers 23, Bears 17