Sam Farmer’s Week 7 NFL picks

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Sam Farmer’s Week 7 NFL picks

Sat, 10/23/2021 - 14:12
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Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season begins Thursday with the Denver Broncos visiting the Browns in Cleveland. The Los Angeles Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups.

— Farmer’s record last week: 11-3 (.786); season 61-33 (.649). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-5 (.643); season 45-47-2 (.489).

— Teams on bye: Chargers, Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Pittsburgh.

Times Pacific. Lines according to FanDuel (O/U = over/under):

Broncos (3-3) at Browns (3-3)

Thursday, 5:20

Line: Browns by 2. O/U: 41.

Broncos came out flat at home against the Raiders and now have to hit the road on a short week. Cleveland is so banged up, though, and this is the exact wrong time to have such limited recovery time.

Prediction: Broncos 21, Browns 20

Bengals (4-2) at Ravens (5-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 6 1/2. O/U: 47.

Baltimore thrashed Cincinnati twice last season, 27-3 and — without Joe Burrow — 38-3. Yes, that was last year, but when it gets that ugly. … Ravens have lost right tackle, yet still have enough.

Prediction: Ravens, 27, Bengals 17

Jets (1-4) at Patriots (2-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Patriots by 7. O/U: 42.

In first meeting this season, the Patriots won, 25-6, at MetLife. There’s little proof the Jets are much better; they’re now playing in Foxborough, and New England made it interesting vs. Dallas.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 17

Chiefs (3-3) at Titans (4-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 5 1/2. O/U: 57 1/2.

Titans are a mature team with an effective formula: Give the ball to Derrick Henry and play keep-away. Patrick Mahomes (interceptions in five straight games) is off his top form but has enough weapons.

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Titans 24

Washington Football Team (2-4) at Packers (5-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Packers by 8 1/2. O/U: 49.

Washington stuck around with Kansas City for longer than many expected, and the banged-up Packers needed a little extra time to put away the Bears. Still, Green Bay is better team, and at home.

Prediction: Packers 27, Washington 20

Falcons (2-3) at Dolphins (1-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Dolphins by 2 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Not a lot to like in this game. Dolphins are coming off a loss to previously winless Jacksonville (followed by what must have felt like a 50-hour flight home from London.) Atlanta is rested with the better QB.

Prediction: Falcons 24, Dolphins 21

Panthers (3-3) at Giants (1-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Panthers by 3. O/U: 43.

Losing Christian McCaffrey for more games was a gut punch for the Panthers who, after a strong start, are showing they’re mediocre. The Giants are considerably worse; they can’t stop anyone.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Giants 20

Lions (0-6) at Rams (5-1)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Rams by 14 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

Winless Lions came close to upsets of Baltimore and Minnesota. Sean McVay won’t let it get that close. Matthew Stafford will pick apart his former team. Jared Goff gets polite reception — until kickoff.

Prediction: Rams 38, Lions 20

Eagles (2-4) at Raiders (4-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Raiders by 3. O/U: 49.

Despite all the off-the-field turmoil, the Raiders pulled together under their new coach for a focused win at Denver. They can keep it going against a Philadelphia team too reliant on Jalen Hurts.

Prediction: Raiders 27, Eagles 23

Texans (1-5) at Cardinals (6-0)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: 17 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

When’s the last time Arizona was favored by two touchdowns and a field goal? Houston is that bad. What’s more, the Cardinals are surging and better with addition of Zach Ertz. Still, huge spread.

Prediction: Cardinals 28, Texans 13

Bears (3-3) at Buccaneers (5-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 12 1/2. O/U: 47.

Chicago stunned Tampa Bay with upset last season. Not saying it’ll happen again, but it’s back-of-mind for both teams. Tom Brady & Co. will be ready this time, but could be closer than people expect.

Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Bears 20

Colts (2-4) at 49ers (2-3)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 4. O/U: 44.

San Francisco quarterbacks are banged up, so there’s uncertainty at the position. In fact, both teams are MASH units. Colts can control the clock with Jonathan Taylor, coming off a tremendous game.

Prediction: Colts 23, 49ers 21

Saints (3-2) at Seahawks (2-4)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Saints by 4 1/2. O/U: 43.

With New Orleans rested and Seattle hobbling, matchup feels lopsided. But these aren’t Drew Brees’ Saints, and Seahawks will not let themselves be embarrassed at home on national TV.

Prediction: Saints 24, Seahawks 21